SHANGHAI, Aug 20 (Reuters) – China kept benchmark lending rates unchanged for the 15th straight month in August on Thursday, in line with market expectations.
WHY IT’S IMPORTANT
The steady loan prime rates (LPRs) suggest policymakers may rely more on accelerated fiscal implementation than fresh monetary easing to shore up growth, analysts said, as banks continue to grapple with near-record-low profit margins.
BY THE NUMBERS
The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.00%, while the five-year LPR was unchanged at 3.50%.
In a Reuters survey of 25 market participants conducted this week, all participants predicted no change to either of the two rates.
CONTEXT
A string of July data, ranging from industrial output and retail sales to credit lending, showed the world’s second-largest economy grappling with persistently weak domestic demand.
China’s new yuan loans posted a record contraction in July, missing forecasts as seasonal factors and weak household credit demand weighed on lending.
China’s leaders pledged at July’s Politburo meeting to support the slowing economy by accelerating fiscal spending on already-budgeted infrastructure projects for the remainder of the year, rather than planning major new stimulus measures.
The central bank said last week it would maintain an appropriately loose monetary stance and roll out practical, effective measures as needed, but stopped short of signaling explicit cuts to policy rates or banks’ reserve-requirement ratio.
KEY QUOTES
** BARCLAYS
“Despite the accommodative stance, we believe the Q2 PBOC Monetary Policy Report suggests that the central bank remains in no rush to cut policy rates or the reserve requirement ratio (RRR). Therefore, we continue to expect policy rates to remain unchanged throughout 2026.
“While the recent strength of the RMB has eased some of the constraints on monetary easing, we believe the record-low level of banks’ net interest margins (NIMs) limits the room for further rate cuts. Historically, banks’ NIMs tend to move in tandem with policy rates, as lending rates, which are linked to the LPR, typically reprice lower soon after policy rate cuts.”
(Reporting by Shanghai Newsroom; Editing by Jacqueline Wong and Shri Navaratnam)
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